What are the odds??

[guest]

Yo everyone I'm really interested in getting into BASE and I wanted to get a feeling for the odds.

So what do you think are the odds that you'll be arrested x( and what are the odds that you'll screw yourself up :-(?

Thanks

[imported_Tom Aiello]

It completely depends on your jumping style.

Skill and preparation can reduce your chance of injury or death. The only way to completely eliminate it is to stay home.

I know three BASE jumpers who I would rate as having a negligible (less than 1%) chance of dying on a jump. Two of them are major gear manufacturers (kudos to bps, who is the third). For most of us, the odds are much greater.

On "average", for an "average" jumping style (whatever that might be), I'd say,

>...arrested...
Around 1 in 500, in the U.S. So, expect handcuffs, on average, by your 500th jump. This can be greatly influenced by your jumping style (an ultra-cautious jumper can probably drop the chance of bust to less than 1 in 2000) and location (if you move to Utah, for example, you can greatly reduce the chance of bust). I'd guess that the odds of bust in Oz are about the same, while the odds of bust in the lands of the free (Europe, South Africa, etc) are far, far lower.

>...screw yourself up...
I'd guess 1 in 500. Expect hospital time by your 500th jump. If you make it to 1000, you're definitely an exception, and ought to be applauded (ovation for the Little Aussie). I'd guess that if you make more than 500 jumps, you'll have around a 5-10% chance of dying on a jump during that time.

I'd say that the most reckless jumpers (myself, perhaps) can push these numbers as far down as 1 in 100, while very cautious jumpers can pretty much eliminate bust and death, and drop the odds of injury as low as 1 in 1000.

As a rule of thumb, I'd say that you WILL be injured, you might not ever be arrested, and you probably won't die. Your personal results may vary.

If you go hard, expect it to be hard on you.

--Tom Aiello
tbaiello@mac.com

[imported_badenhop]

If you only jump legal sites, the risk of arrest should be zero.
If you trespass, you risk arrest each time.
I strongly disagree with the other stated odds.
The only jumpers who do not risk injury are those that stay home.
Even the best of the best, bps included, take a risk on each jump.
I believe that Nick's odds are most accurate, and that is "50-50".
That is to say that each and every time you step off,
you have to figure it could go either way.......
Frank Zappa (rip) wrote a tune about it,
I hum to myself very often on the way to the edge.

[jupija]

why talking about the odds here. I dont know if anyone began this sport becouse the odds ´are good´. One will get hurt if he crosses the street not checking if it safe, as well, he will propably get killed if nonchecking and recheching everything before and on the jump.

stay safe and on bouth of your legs


why dive if u can B.A.S.Edive

[crwper]

I think if you have to ask what the odds are, you probably aren't ready just yet. Decisions in BASE should not be made based on statistical information. You should gather as much "empirical" information as you can:

- Watch other people jump.
- Learn everything you can about the equipment.
- Read the fatality list.

Most of all, be realistic about the variables involved. There are a lot of things that can kill you in BASE, and at any one time you'll be lucky if you have fifty percent of them in your sights. You'll live longer if you're good at keeping the big variables in your sights, but it doesn't mean the little ones aren't just as deadly. Know what I mean?

There are as many reasons to jump as there are BASE jumpers. You should have reached some sort of understanding within yourself about your own reasons.

I think it's unrealistic to ask that anyone should be prepared to suffer injury or die for something... When we cross the street, we could be injured or killed, but I think few of us are prepared to die for whatever reason we were crossing the street. But neither do you make your decision to cross the street based on statistics.

If you are aware of the statistics for crossing the street, it's probably not because someone told you what they are. It's probably because you've been on a street corner or two, and you've crossed them, or you've watched others cross them, and you don't see many people getting taken out. You may also have been taught to look both ways, and unless you are distracted, you are conditioned to be aware of approaching traffic.

Still, it doesn't mean you'll never be crossing the street, chatting on your cell phone, and get smoked by someone who just ran the red.

I guess the bottom line of what I'm trying to say is this: I think you should approach BASE jumping much like you approach everything else in your life. Instead of asking for the statistics, you should gather enough information to form your own statistics. Make sense?

Michael